Evaluation of United States and Pakistan Relations Amidst Changing Global Dynamics
The US Indo-Pacific Strategy focuses on ensuring a free, open, and secure region, countering China’s expanding influence, and strengthening alliances with key partners like India, Australia, and Japan. This shift significantly impacts US-Pakistan relations, given Pakistan’s deepening strategic partnership with China, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While Pakistan’s geographical location and historical ties with the US position it as a potentially valuable partner, its alignment with Beijing creates a complex dynamic.
To navigate these challenges, Pakistan must balance its ties with China while maintaining constructive engagement with the US. For both nations, focusing on mutual interests such as economic growth and regional stability will be crucial in redefining their relationship amid the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Historical Context of US-Pakistan Relations
US-Pakistan relations have traditionally been shaped by shared strategic goals, particularly during the Cold War, the Afghan-Soviet War, and the post-9/11 War on Terror. However, relations have often been transactional, influenced by shifting geopolitical priorities. The Indo-Pacific Strategy marks a transition in US foreign policy, prioritizing alliances with India, Australia, and Japan while redefining its approach toward South Asia, including Pakistan.
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Key Dynamics Under the Indo-Pacific Strategy
1. Pakistan’s Alignment with China
Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), positions it at odds with the US Indo-Pacific vision. The US perceives CPEC as part of China’s effort to extend its influence, complicating Pakistan’s ability to maintain balanced relations with both powers.
2. Security Cooperation
While US-Pakistan cooperation on counterterrorism remains an area of mutual interest, it has diminished significantly in recent years. The US has shifted its focus toward India as a key security partner in South Asia, sidelining Pakistan. This shift has raised concerns in Islamabad about reduced military aid and diminishing strategic importance in Washington’s calculations.
3. Economic Engagement
The US remains a major trading partner and a significant source of foreign direct investment (FDI) for Pakistan. Despite geopolitical tensions, there is potential for enhanced economic collaboration, particularly in technology, energy, and climate resilience. However, the US’s growing economic ties with India, coupled with sanctions on Pakistan-related entities, have strained bilateral economic relations.
4. Pakistan’s Strategic Location
Pakistan’s position as a gateway to Central Asia and its proximity to key maritime routes make it an important player in regional connectivity. The US recognizes this but is cautious due to Pakistan’s ties with China and its stance on Afghanistan. Pakistan’s stability and role in facilitating peace in Afghanistan remain areas of shared interest.
Challenges in US-Pakistan Relations
- Policy Divergence: The US’s emphasis on countering China conflicts with Pakistan’s strategic alliance with Beijing.
- Reduced Strategic Importance: With the US pivoting toward India, Pakistan’s centrality in US policy has declined.
- Trust Deficit: A history of mutual mistrust, particularly regarding Pakistan’s role in combating extremism, continues to strain relations.
Opportunities for Cooperation
Despite challenges, there are areas where US-Pakistan cooperation could be strengthened:
- Economic Ties: The US can pivotally support Pakistan’s economic recovery through trade and investment.
- Climate Change: Pakistan, being highly vulnerable to climate change, could benefit from US expertise and funding in building resilience.
- Education and Technology: Collaboration between education and technological innovation could create long-term partnerships.
Conclusion
US-Pakistan relations under the Indo-Pacific Strategy are complex, and marked by competing interests and diverging priorities. While the US views Pakistan through the lens of its China-focused policy, Pakistan seeks to balance relations with both powers while addressing its own economic and security challenges. Moving forward, a pragmatic approach focusing on mutual interests, such as economic development, counterterrorism, and regional stability, could help stabilize and redefine the bilateral relationship amidst the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Further Readings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan%E2%80%93United_States_relations
https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-pakistan/
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/looking-back-looking-forward-assessing-us-pakistan-relationship
